Do BTC closes below the confirmed 200-week SMA correspond to higher medium- and long-horizon forward returns than ordinary eligible dates?
Key finding
2 years median forward return: +319.3% for dates below the reference, +207.8% for all eligible dates.
Forward returns of below-SMA dates versus all eligible dates. Overlapping windows mean the sample is clustered, and the long-horizon counts collapse onto a few completed cycles.
Forward returns of below-SMA dates versus all eligible dates. Overlapping windows mean the sample is clustered, and the long-horizon counts collapse onto a few completed cycles.